Change in the perceived reproductive age window and delayed fertility in Europe.

While extensive literature documents the massive fertility delay of recent decades, knowledge about whether and how attitudes towards the timing of births have changed in Europe remains limited. Using data from two rounds of the European Social Survey, we investigate these changes and their association with macro-level fertility indicators in 21 countries. Between 2006-07 and 2018-19, societal consensus regarding the existence of optimal childbearing ages remained strong and became more in favour of later parenthood. Decomposition analyses show that these shifts were driven only partially by changes in population composition, supporting the idea that a general attitudinal change in favour of later childbearing is underway. We also find a trend towards gender convergence in upper age limits driven by the increasing social recognition of an age deadline for men's childbearing. Although shifts in perceived reproductive age windows occurred during periods of birth postponement, they corresponded only loosely to country-level changes in fertility.

Projecting the Contribution of Assisted Reproductive Technology to Completed Cohort Fertility.

Assisted reproductive technology (ART) is increasingly influencing the fertility trends of high-income countries characterized by a pattern of delayed childbearing. However, research on the impact of ART on completed fertility is limited and the extent to which delayed births are realized later in life through ART is not well understood. This study uses data from Australian fertility clinics and national birth registries to project the contribution of ART for cohorts of women that have not yet completed their reproductive life and estimate the role played by ART in the fertility 'recuperation' process. Assuming that the increasing trends in ART success rates and treatment rates continue, the projection shows that the contribution of ART-conceived births to completed fertility will increase from 2.1% among women born in 1968 to 5.7% among women born in 1986. ART is projected to substantially affect the extent to which childbearing delay will be compensated at older ages, suggesting that its availability may become an important factor in helping women to achieve their reproductive plans later in life. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-023-09765-3.

Has the cesarean epidemic in Czechia been reversed despite fertility postponement?

BACKGROUND: Although the percentage of cesarean sections (CS) in Czechia is below the average of that of other developed countries (23.6%), it still exceeds WHO recommendations (15%). The first aim of the study is to examine the association between a CS birth and the main health factors and sociodemographic characteristics involved, while the second aim is to examine recent trends in the CS rate in Czechia.  METHODS: Anonymized data on all mothers in Czechia for 2018 taken from the National Register of Expectant Mothers was employed. The risk of cesarean delivery for the observed factors was tested via the construction of a binary logistic regression model that allowed for adjustments for all the other covariates in the model. RESULTS: Despite all the covariates being found to be statistically significant, it was determined that health factors represented a higher risk of a CS than sociodemographic characteristics. A previous CS was found to increase the risk of its recurrence by 33 times (OR = 32.96, 95% CI 30.95-35.11, p<0.001). The breech position increased the risk of CS by 31 times (OR = 31.03, 95% CI 28.14-34.29, p<0.001). A multiple pregnancy increased the odds of CS six-fold and the use of ART 1.8-fold. Mothers who suffered from diabetes before pregnancy were found to be twice as likely to give birth via CS (OR = 2.14, 95% CI 1.76-2.60, p<0.001), while mothers with gestational diabetes had just 23% higher odds of a CS birth (OR = 1.23, 95% CI 1.16-1.31, p<0.001). Mothers who suffered from hypertension gave birth via CS twice as often as did mothers without such complications (OR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.86-2.21, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The increasing age of mothers, a significant risk factor for a CS, was found to be independent of other health factors. Accordingly, delayed childbearing is thought to be associated with the increase in the CS rate in Czechia. However, since other factors come into play, further research is needed to assess whether the recent slight decline in the CS rate is not merely a temporal trend.

Does Advanced Maternal Age Comprise an Independent Risk Factor for Caesarean Section? A Population-Wide Study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between a mother's age and the risk of caesarean section (CS) when controlling for health factors and selected sociodemographic characteristics. METHODS: Binary logistic regression models for all women who gave birth in Czechia in 2018 (N = 111,749 mothers who gave birth to 113,234 children). RESULTS: An increase in the age of a mother significantly increases the odds of a CS birth according to all of the models; depending on the model, OR: 1.62 (95% CI 1.54-1.71) to 1.84 (95% CI 1.70-1.99) for age group 35-39 and OR: 2.83 (95% CI 2.60-3.08) to 3.71 (95% CI 3.23-4.27) for age group 40+ compared to age group 25-29. This strong association between the age of a mother and the risk of CS is further reinforced for primiparas (probability of a CS: 11% for age category ≤ 19, 23% for age category 35-39, and 38% for age category 40+). However, the increasing educational attainment of young women appears to have weakened the influence of increasing maternal age on the overall share of CS births; depending on the model, OR: 0.86 (95% CI 0.80-0.91) to 0.87 (95% CI 0.83-0.91) for tertiary-educated compared to secondary-educated women. CONCLUSIONS: The age of a mother comprises an independent risk factor for a CS birth when the influence of health, socioeconomic, and demographic characteristics is considered.

Latest-Late Fertility? Decline and Resurgence of Late Parenthood Across the Low-Fertility Countries.

After decades of fertility postponement, we investigate recent changes in late parenthood across low-fertility countries in the light of observations from the past. We use long series of age-specific fertility rates from the Human Fertility Database (1950-2016) for women, and new data covering the period 1990-2016 for men. In 1950, the contribution of births at age 40 and over to female fertility rates ranged from 2.5 to 9 percent, but then fell sharply until the 1980s. From the 1990s, however, the prevalence of late first births increased rapidly, especially so in countries where it was initially lowest. This has produced a late fertility rebound in the last two decades, occurring much faster for women than for men. Comparisons between recent and past extremely late (age 48+) fertility levels confirm that people are now challenging the natural fertility barriers, particularly for a first child.

All-time low period fertility in Finland: Demographic drivers, tempo effects, and cohort implications.

The ongoing period fertility decline in the Nordic countries is particularly strong in Finland, where the total fertility rate (TFR) reached an all-time low of 1.41 in 2018. We analyse the decrease in Finland's TFR in 2010-17, and assess its consequences for cohort fertility using complementary approaches. Decomposition of this fertility decline shows that first births and women aged <30 are making the largest contributions. However, women aged 30-39 are also, for the first time in decades, experiencing a sustained fertility decline. Tempo adjustments to the TFR suggest that quantum change is part of the decline. Several forecasting methods indicate that cohort fertility is likely to decline from the long-lasting level of 1.85-1.95 to 1.75 or lower among women born in the mid-1980s. Without an exceptionally strong recovery in fertility, Finnish cohort fertility is likely to decline to levels currently observed among countries with very low fertility.

Online Distance Education and Transition to Parenthood Among Female University Students in Sweden.

The expansion of tertiary education is key to understanding postponement of first births. Currently, online distance education is changing the nature of university enrolment. In this study, I suggest that online distance education impacts on fertility by facilitating the transition to parenthood among students. I examine the relationship between online distance education and first births during university enrolment. Using survival analysis of register data for the 1968-1991 female cohorts, I examine the impact of distance and campus education on first-parity transitions during university enrolment between 2004 and 2012 (N = 938,768). Results indicate that the negative association between enrolment and first parity conception differs substantially between campus and distance enrolment. Compared to non-enrolment, the hazard of first parity conception is 70% lower during campus enrolment but 43% lower during distance enrolment. These findings are discussed in relation to educational heterogeneity and fertility postponement and the impact of technological innovation on family dynamics.

Reproduction ageing in Czechia in the European context.

The shift in fertility to higher ages over the last few decades represents one of the most distinctive features of reproductive behaviour in Czechia. The aim of this article is to provide an overview of the process of fertility postponement in the European context and assessment of the Czech situation. While the fertility postponement is a universal trend in developed countries, significant differences are evident between European countries in terms of both the commencement and speed of postponement concerning the mean age of mothers at first birth. The article also discusses the main factors that influence the fertility postponement. While at the beginning of the 1990s Czech first-time mothers were among the youngest in the worlds developed countries, during the 1990s Czech women experienced one of the most rapid increases in the mean age of first birth. Nevertheless, in the European context Czechia continues to have slightly younger first-time mothers (28.2 years in 2016, 0.8 years younger than the EU average). It also appears that currently no direct correlation is evident with concern to the mean age of mothers at first birth and the total fertility rate.

Social inequality, human development and fertility pattern in Brazil, 2000-2010 / Desigualdade social, desenvolvimento humano e padrão de fecundidade no Brasil, 2000-2010

Abstract Objectives: to analyze the fertility pattern in Brazil and its relationship with human development in the Brazilian federation units in 2000 and 2010. Methods: this is an ecological study whose unit of analysis was the Brazilian Federative Units in the period of 2000 and 2010. The fertility was assessed considering the social (HDI), inequality, (Gini, Theil and Income Ratio) and fertility indicators (fertility rate and mean age of fertility). Results: Brazil has been experiencing a rapid fertility transition. The pattern of fertility curves changed in all Federative Units between 2000 and 2010, with a reduction in cusp size and postponement of fecundity. This change was more evident among the Federative Units with better development and lower inequality. The correlation between social and fertility indicators lost strength in the period, corroborating the transition hypothesis. Conclusions: there is a direct relation between the fecundity and inequality indicators, and inversing human development. Changes should be taken in consideration in the age structure of the population, as well as inequality indicators, for better planning in public policies for public health.

Resumo Objetivos: analisar o padrão de fecundidade no Brasil e sua relação com o desenvolvimento humano nas unidades de federação no Brasil em 2000 e 2010. Métodos: trata-se de estudo ecológico cuja unidade de análise foram as Unidades Federativas brasileiras no período de 2000 e 2010. A fecundidade foi avaliada considerando os indicadores sociais (IDH), indicadores de desigualdade (Gini, Theil e Razão de Renda) e os indicadores de fecundidade (taxa de fecundidade e idade média de fecundidade). Resultados: o Brasil vem experimentando rápida transição da fecundidade. O padrão das curvas de fecundidade modificou em todas as UF entre 2000 e 2010, com redução do tamanho da cúspide e postergação da fecundidade. Esta mudança foi mais evidente entre as UF com melhor desenvolvimento e menor desigualdade. A correlação entre indicadores sociais e de fecundidade perdeu força no período, corroborando a hipótese de transição. Conclusões: existe relação direta entre os indicadores de fecundidade e desigualdade, e inversa com desenvolvimento humano. Deve-se considerar as modificações na estrutura etária da população, bem como nos indicadores de desigualdade, para melhor planejamento de políticas públicas na saúde pública.

Baixa fecundidade e adiamento do primeiro filho no Brasil / Low fertility and postponement of first birth in Brazil / Baja fecundidad y aplazamiento del primer hijo en Brasil

O Brasil vem passando por um processo de adiamento dos nascimentos, o que tem contribuído para que a fecundidade observada seja reduzida pela ação do efeito tempo. Nesse contexto, o primeiro nascimento assume importância, na medida em que o momento da sua ocorrência está relacionado ao dos nascimentos subsequentes e ao potencial de recuperação dos nascimentos adiados. O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar o comportamento dos nascimentos de primeira ordem no Brasil, levando-se em conta a heterogeneidade regional. Buscam-se elementos que possam enriquecer o debate acerca do futuro da fecundidade no país. São utilizados os dados dos Censos Demográficos e as histórias de nascimentos reconstruídas a partir destes, para o período de 1980 a 2010. Os resultados mostram a persistência dos diferenciais regionais e indicam um cenário de adiamento do primeiro filho no Brasil e de aumento da proporção de mulheres que terminam o período reprodutivo sem filhos. Caso os diferenciais regionais se reduzam, a tendência é de acirramento do adiamento e queda adicional dos níveis de fecundidade.

Brazil is undergoing a process of birth postponement, which has contributed to the reduction of observed fertility. In this context, first births are crucial, insofar as the moment of their occurrence is related to subsequent births and to postponed births' recovery potential. The objective of this paper is to analyze first-order births, taking into account Brazilian regional heterogeneity. We intend to enrich the debate about the future of fertility in Brazil. Data come from the 1980, 1991, 2000 and 2010 Demographic Censuses and the birth stories reconstructed from them, for the 1980 to 2010 period. Results show the persistence of regional differentials and point to (i) a scenario of postponement of first child in Brazil; and (ii) an increase in the proportion of childless women. If regional differences are reduced, postponement tends to increase and fertility levels tend to decrease further.

Brasil pasa por un proceso de aplazamiento de los nacimientos que ha contribuido a que la fecundidad se vea reducida por la acción del efecto tiempo. En ese contexto, el primer nacimiento adquiere importancia, en la medida en que el momento de su ocurrencia está relacionado con el potencial de recuperación de los nacimientos pospuestos. El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar el comportamiento de los nacimientos de primer orden, teniendo en cuenta la heterogeneidad regional. Se buscan elementos que puedan enriquecer el debate sobre el futuro de la fecundidad en Brasil. Se utilizan los datos de los censos demográficos de 1980, 1991, 2000 y 2010 y las historias de nacimientos reconstruidas a partir de los censos para el período 1980-2010. Los resultados muestran la persistencia de las diferencias regionales y apuntan a un escenario de aplazamiento del primer hijo y de aumento de la proporción de mujeres que terminan el período reproductivo sin hijos. Si las diferencias regionales se reducen, la tendencia es de acentuación del aplazamiento y de caída adicional de los niveles de fecundidad.

Is the Association Between Education and Fertility Postponement Causal? The Role of Family Background Factors.

A large body of literature has demonstrated a positive relationship between education and age at first birth. However, this relationship may be partly spurious because of family background factors that cannot be controlled for in most research designs. We investigate the extent to which education is causally related to later age at first birth in a large sample of female twins from the United Kingdom (N = 2,752). We present novel estimates using within-identical twin and biometric models. Our findings show that one year of additional schooling is associated with about one-half year later age at first birth in ordinary least squares (OLS) models. This estimate reduced to only a 1.5-month later age at first birth for the within-identical twin model controlling for all shared family background factors (genetic and family environmental). Biometric analyses reveal that it is mainly influences of the family environment-not genetic factors-that cause spurious associations between education and age at first birth. Last, using data from the Office for National Statistics, we demonstrate that only 1.9 months of the 2.74 years of fertility postponement for birth cohorts 1944-1967 could be attributed to educational expansion based on these estimates. We conclude that the rise in educational attainment alone cannot explain differences in fertility timing between cohorts.